Epidemiology: Antivirals and isolation can curb bird flu outbreak in humans

Up to three million courses of anti-flu drugs, as well as a policy of isolating groups at risk, would be needed to ward off a human outbreak of avian flu in Southeast Asia.

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Epidemiology: Antivirals and isolation can curb bird flu outbreak in humans
(AOP)

DOI: 10.1038/nature04017

Up to three million courses of anti-flu drugs, as well as a policy of
isolating groups at risk, would be needed to ward off a human outbreak of
avian flu in Southeast Asia, according to a new epidemiological analysis.
The disease is currently rife in the region's poultry stocks, and health
experts fear a human pandemic if the virus becomes more easily transmissible
between people.

Neil Ferguson and his colleagues modelled the potential spread of the deadly
H5N1 virus in the event of a human outbreak emerging in the region. As they
report in a study published online by Nature, a nascent pandemic could be
controlled by a combination of "geographically targeted prophylaxis" -
involving antiviral drugs such as oseltamivir, also called Tamiflu - and
"social distancing measures" such as school closures and travel
restrictions.

There is currently no effective vaccine against H5N1, the authors add. This
underlines the need for drug stockpiling, vigilant public health monitoring
and speedy reaction times. The researchers calculate that starting a
containment policy when an outbreak was no bigger than 40 cases, and then
isolating and treating the population around each newly identified case
within two days could limit any outbreak to about 150 cases and potentially
prevent millions of deaths.

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2005

The speakers are:
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Published: 04 Aug 2005

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