Constructing Future Higher Education Scenarios

Very few sustained efforts to develop scenarios for the future of higher education have been undertaken. Universiti Sains Malaysia (USM) is a bit of a trend-setter in this respect, and this book is to be welcomed by those interested in exploring the future of universities.

Book Review
Constructing Future Higher Education Scenarios
Insights from Universiti Sains Malaysia
(Published 2007)

Very few sustained efforts to develop scenarios for the future of higher
education have been undertaken. The OECD has a futures program that has
produced scenarios for universities over time, but not many institutions take
on the task in a sustained or systematic way. Universiti Sains Malaysia (USM)
is a bit of a trend-setter in this respect, and this book is to be welcomed by
those interested in exploring the future of universities.

All universities grapple with the challenges in their external environments, but
most develop strategies based on their understanding of the past and the
present. Even though most universities write of changing paradigms in their
plans, few actually engage with what this change might mean for their
institution into the future. USM recognises the changing paradigm within
which it operates and uses this recognition as the springboard for a scenario
project that explored in some depth how it might create a preferred future for
itself.

USM have detailed their scenario project in great detail, including their
rationale, the identification of drivers of change, their methods, the scenario
outcomes, how these scenarios were used to generate options and indicators
for the university, and how the process and outcomes was communicated to
university stakeholders. They reviewed their project and have documented
how they would do it differently. It is a remarkably comprehensive report of
their project, which they have generously made available through the
publication of this book. Photos of workshops, the inevitable butchers paper,
and outcomes have been included, and this a particularly useful addition that
makes the process ‘real’ and practical, rather than just a process described in
words.

While the scenarios themselves are probably valuable only for USM, since
they are created to understand the options for the future of USM, the process
and drivers of change are relevant for all universities. Within the context of the
knowledge economy, USM identified four drivers of change:
- Globalism
- Multiculturalism
- The internet, and
- Politicisation

The interaction of these drivers will result in different university configurations,
and how these configurations emerge will depend on each university’s
particular history and culture. Applying these drivers to their local context, the
authors note that USM will not be immune from the transformational impact of
these drivers:

Such a transformation implies that the future philosophical and functional framework
of the university itself would have to undergo a metamorphosis to ensure its
continued role as an incubator of innovation and a driver of social change (p8).
They identified a number of issues to explore, including intellectual property,
pedagogical approaches, curriculum design, accessibility. Governance,
relevance, acceptance of change and bureaucratic miasma. Their critical
question to anchor their scenario work was around how to position USM for
the future: “Will we forgo our social obligations as we pursue a more
business-oriented approach?” This is a question with which all university
administrators and managers would be familiar.

Five scenarios were developed using a wide range of futures methods. The
scenarios were tested over a six month period with USM stakeholders to
facilitate the process of communicating the outcomes to the university
community, and to gain further input into the final stage of their project –
creating a preferred future for USM. This final stage produced a vision for the
University called “4S The Symbiotically Sustainable Study Space”, as well as
a set of indicators that will be monitored over time.

The value of the project has been summarised as follows.
The Future of Higher Education Project has provided deep and ‘original’ insights into
the current and future orientations of the stakeholders of a higher education
institution such as USM...While one could never be certain of what the future holds,
to desist from undertaking any such endeavour would imply a reluctance to change
increasingly outmoded status quos and would contribute to future organisational
inertia. One could surmise that the future is not to be beheld but to be grasped,
moulded and shaped by our caressing thoughts and ideas, and constructing
alternative future scenarios affords us the opportunity to do just that (p125).

Written in an accessible style, Constructing Future Higher Education
Scenarios is an excellent resource for any university planner who wants to
find out more about: using futures approaches, how futures methods can be
used practically in strategy development, testing their University plans against
a rigorously developed set of scenarios, or simply finding out how one
university is approaching its future. Thanks are due to the authors and project
team for documenting and then sharing their work. This book is well worth
having on your bookshelves.

Reviewer: Maree Conway
Director, Thinking Futures
July 2007

Published: 05 Aug 2007

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