Energy, Environment and the Future of Security in Central Asia

A DOE-sponsored workshop on “Energy, Environment and the Future of Security in Central Asia” will be held in Rome (Italy) on 15-16 October, 2009.

The workshop will explore the security implications of critical energy and environmental issues in Central Asia and will seek to generate strategic insights that will be useful for government and private-sector policy-makers around the world and in Central Asia itself.

Participation will be limited to 35-40 experts. For further information and inquiries regarding participation please contact Prof. Sergio Germani ([email protected]) or go to the website http://globaleese.org/signup/3f7b8a0ae240.

TENTATIVE CONFERENCE AGENDA

ENERGY, ENVIRONMENT AND THE FUTURE OF SECURITY IN CENTRAL ASIA

Understanding the Security Implications of Critical Energy and Environmental Issues
ROME, ITALY
15-16 OCTOBER 2009

Day 1: Thursday, 15 October 2009

9:00 Welcome remarks by representatives of the US Department of Energy, the Italian Government and the Department of Strategic Intelligence and Security Studies of Link Campus University

9:10 Overview by lead facilitator

9:20 Keynote speaker

9:35 Panel - Developments affecting the future security and stability of Central Asian countries and of the region as a whole

Three presentations in a plenary session will provide a broad picture of “hard” and “soft” security issues in Central Asia and how they are likely to shape the region’s future strategic environment. Speakers will identify developments that are likely to enhance stability and those that could produce greater destabilization.

10:30 Break

10:45 Panel – Developments affecting the future security and stability of Central Asian countries and of the region as a whole

Moderated Q&A discussion in plenary on the major points addressed in the presentations.

11:30 Central Asia in the next 10 years: potential risks and opportunities for security and stability

Break-out groups will discuss potential short, medium, and long term risks and opportunities for stability in Central Asia.

12:15 Overview of the afternoon session by the lead facilitator

12:30 Lunch

13:30 Exploring Energy, Environment and Security Dynamics in Central Asia -

Round 1

Five break-out groups will discuss in parallel sessions the development and security implications of specific energy or environment-related issues:

(1) The impact of energy revenues on the governing capacity and stability of Central Asian states.

(2) Environmental degradation and its effects on human security, economic security and social stability in Central Asia1.

(3) The security implications of climate change and of the water-energy-agriculture nexus in Central Asia.

(4) Security challenges and risks of Central Asia’s anticipated expansion of uranium production and nuclear industry.

(5) Energy and geopolitical competition in the region and its effects on the stability of Central Asian states.

14:30 Exploring Energy, Environment and Security Dynamics - Round 2

15:30 Break

15:45 Exploring Energy, Environment and Security Dynamics - Round 3

16:45 Closing Thoughts by lead facilitator and conference coordinator

17:00 Adjourn

Day 2: Friday, 16 October 2009

9:00 Overview of Day 2 by lead facilitator

The key issues to be discussed in this group are the security implications of environmental stresses related to oil and gas production as well as of radioactive contamination.

9:15 Clarification of key findings in each issue-area and identification of emerging threats, risks and opportunities.

The five initial break-out groups will clarify key findings and insights regarding the possible evolution of their specific issue-area and identify emerging threats, risks and opportunities for security and stability in Central Asia.

10:30 Break

11:00 Plenary session

Each of the break-out groups will share their key findings with the other groups in a plenary session.

12:00 Identification of interdependencies and interconnected issues

New break-out groups will discuss the interdependencies of the five issue-areas and how their interaction is likely to shape future Central Asian security dynamics. The groups will propose new questions that need to be addressed by expert communities and new themes for interdisciplinary research.

13:00 Lunch

14:00 Reporting of group findings in plenary session

15:00 Review of key insights: towards a systemic picture of Central Asian security dynamics

A moderated conversation in plenary session will highlight strategic insights regarding the systemic interconnections between issue-areas and outline an integrated view of Central Asian security futures.

15:45 Break

16:15 Summary of strategic insights for decision-makers

Strategic insights useful for government and private-sector decision-makers will be summarized in a plenary session.

16:25 Keynote speaker and Q&A session

16:50 Closing remarks by conference coordinator and lead facilitator

17:00 Adjourn

The following experts will prepare papers and present them in plenary or break-out group sessions:

- Timur Berkeliev (Turkmenistan), scholar and environmentalist.
- Umed Babakhanov (Tajikistan), General Director of Asia-Plus Information Agency (Tashkent)
- Stephen Blank (USA) – Research Professor of National Security Affairs, Strategic Studies Institute of the US Army War College.
- Gavin Hayman (UK), Campaigns Director, Global Witness (London).
- Togzhan Kassenova (Kazakhstan), Senior Research Associate, Center for International Trade and Security (Washington DC).
- Kalia Moldogazieva (Kyrgizstan) , Director of Human Development Center " Tree of Life".
- Indra Overland (Norway), Director, Energy Programme, Norwegian Institute of International Affairs.
- Paul Quinn-Judge (UK) - Central Asia Project Director, International Crisis Group (based in Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan).
- Renat Perelet (Russia) , Institute for Systems Analysis, Russian Academy of Sciences (Moscow).
- Rafik Sayfullin (Uzbekistan), security expert.
- Niklas Swanstrom (Sweden), Director, Institute for Security and Development Policy, Stockholm.
- Erika Weinthal (USA), Associate Professor of Environmental Policy, Duke University.

Conference coordinator: Sergio Germani, Academic Director of the Department of Strategic Intelligence and Security Studies of Link Campus University (Rome, Italy).

Lead facilitator: Alain Wouters, Managing Director of Whole Systems (Brussels, Belgium)