The figure visualizes the predicted probability for respondents, answering “certainly yes” for their migration intentions in 5 years with different combinations of spousal political attitudes and respondents’ affective polarization. The lighter color of the contour plot signifies a lower level of migration intentions (as low as 0% answering “certainly yes”), and the darker color signifies a higher level of migration intentions (as high as around 24% answering “certainly yes”).
The 2019 Anti-Extradition Law Amendment Bill (Anti-ELAB) Movement triggered a dramatic shift in Hong Kong's political landscape. In 2020, the Chinese central government enacted the National Security Law to tighten its control over Hong Kong and reformed the electoral system, imposing stricter candidate qualifications. Subsequently, pro-democracy groups, media outlets, and political parties faced severe suppression, with large-scale arrests of political leaders and dissenters.
These changes led to a surge in migration from Hong Kong. For instance, from January 2021 to March 2023, the UK received over 172,500 applications for British National (Overseas) immigration from Hong Kong residents, representing approximately 2% of Hong Kong's population. This wave of migration resembles patterns observed around the 1997 handover of Hong Kong to China, and past studies have examined how families respond to political uncertainty.
Understanding the characteristics and motivations of emigrants helps analyze the impact of this migration wave on both Hong Kong and destination countries. Existing studies often focus on socio-political factors but largely rely on individual-level data, seldom considering how a spouse's political traits influence personal migration intentions. Moreover, there has been little exploration into how affective polarization—hatred toward political opponents—shapes migration intentions. Using dyadic data from 1,003 heterosexual married couples in Hong Kong, this study investigates how individual and spousal political attitudes and affective polarization jointly influence migration intentions.
Political Attitudes, Affective Polarization, and Migration Intentions
Previous research often explains political migration in Hong Kong using variables like political affiliation or protest participation. However, this study focuses on two political factors: attitudes toward democracy (political attitudes) and hatred toward political opponents (political emotions). Although these are partially related, they function independently. Some studies suggest that individuals who value democratic principles are more likely to migrate when faced with authoritarianism, which applies to Hong Kong.
However, a pro-democracy attitude alone does not fully explain migration intentions—affective polarization plays a critical role. Research indicates that political polarization exacerbates hostility between opposing camps, making emotional hatred a key driver of migration.
Since the 2014 Umbrella Movement and the 2019 Anti-ELAB Movement, political divisions in Hong Kong have deepened, with hostile emotions spreading across media, public spaces, and daily conversations. These hostile emotions have rendered Hong Kong perceived as an "uninhabitable" place, intensifying migration intentions. Similar emotional factors have been observed in migration studies related to the Venezuelan crisis and other authoritarian contexts. The interplay between affective polarization and democratic attitudes further elucidates variations in migration intentions.
The Role of Spousal Political Factors
Migration often involves family-level considerations rather than purely individual decisions. Research on economic migration shows that an individual’s migration intentions can be influenced by their spouse’s attitudes and overall family well-being. Similarly, political migration must account for the needs and emotional states of family members. This study hypothesizes that spousal political attitudes and affective polarization significantly shape an individual’s migration intentions. For instance, even if an individual does not support migration, they may still choose to migrate if their spouse experiences psychological stress due to the political environment.
Additionally, the study explores how spouses’ political attitudes and emotions interact. Couples with aligned political views may be more inclined to emigrate, particularly if both partners support democratic values and harbor strong animosity toward political opponents. Conversely, politically divided couples might also opt to emigrate to avoid conflict. Political disagreements within families may increase daily tensions, strain marital relationships, and prompt migration as a way to reduce conflict.
Discussion and Policy Implications
This study provides new insights into the relationships between political divisions, affective polarization, and migration intentions. The findings indicate that affective polarization, rather than political attitudes alone, is a key factor influencing migration intentions. Even when both partners share a pro-democracy stance, they may not necessarily choose to move when democracy is under threat. Moreover, spousal political dynamics play a significant role in migration decisions. Politically divided couples may intend to move in order to avoid conflict. Political divisions not only affect migration intentions but may also impact post-migration settlement experiences and family well-being.
However, this study has limitations, including its focus on emigration intentions rather than actual behavior, its inability to track changes in migration actions over time, and its omission of non-political factors. Future research could use longitudinal data to examine the long-term evolution of emigration intentions and their connections to settlement experiences.
From a policy perspective, measures to reduce politically driven population loss should promote social dialogue and inclusivity while supporting couples with differing political views. For destination countries, understanding emigrants' political motivations and family dynamics can help non-governmental organizations provide targeted assistance, such as improving newcomers' adaptation processes and family relationships. These efforts could enhance social stability and the overall well-being of migrants.
Prof. Lake Lui’s email address: [email protected]
